Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x46c7…8334 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+4%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.6%
≤30d 4 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.6%
≤90d 4 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.6%
all 4 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 0% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 0% -5.6%
10% -14.5% 0% -14.6%
15% -22.8% 0% -22.9%
20% -30.3% 0% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $67 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $141 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $67 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records