Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
46 0x46ca…108f other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$329 (+31%) realized +$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days+$96
14 days+$202
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$106
sports 35% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 50% -0.5%
≤30d 8 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% +8.0%
≤90d 8 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% +8.0%
all 8 +3.3% -6.6% 50% 50% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 50% +8.0%
10% -15.5% 50% -2.3%
15% -23.7% 38% -11.7%
20% -31.1% 38% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$84 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage9d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $119 −$115 -97%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $355 +$107 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $153 +$125 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $126 +$190 +151%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $71 +$116 +164%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $119 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $355 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $204 7h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $153 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $126 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $71 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records