Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:32:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46cb…feb9 world 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$6
sports 17% −$9
other 17% −$4
politics 11% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.5% -9.9% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 30 -4.1% -13.3% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 66 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 67 -4.1% -13.2% 28% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage486d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $80 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $76 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $138 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $84 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $17 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $77 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $35 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $22 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $4 −$2 -62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $40 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $172 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $159 +$4 +2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $2 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $12 −$5 -37%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $36 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $36 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records