Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x46cf…42ea sports 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15,123 (+14%) realized +$15,485 · open −$362
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%72W / 68L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$744per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$621est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,204
7 days+$4,204
14 days+$4,204
30 days+$3,343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$15,228
crypto 12% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +68.1% +52.1% 75% 75% +73.9%
≤30d 9 +23.6% +11.8% 56% 56% +24.6%
≤90d 89 -26.2% -33.3% 36% 36% -9.6%
all 140 -1.5% -10.8% 51% 51% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 51% +4.0%
10% -19.4% 51% -5.9%
15% -27.2% 47% -15.0%
20% -34.3% 44% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,016) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$733 vs −$546 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$15,485
Unrealized−$362
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses72 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$621
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage124d
Avg bet$744
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 18¢ $563 $201 −$362 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2,989 +$2,566 +86%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $216 −$212 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1,017 +$1,306 +128%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $344 +$544 +158%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $276 −$276 -100%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $2,421 −$2,395 -99%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $1,012 +$1,410 +139%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $505 +$509 +101%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $112 −$110 -98%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $652 −$641 -98%
Atlético Nacional vs. CD Tolima: O/U 2.5 May 24 $612 +$528 +86%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 May 05 $546 −$536 -98%
FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang: O/U 2.5 May 05 $1,088 −$1,072 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Apr 29 $272 −$25 -9%
Konyaspor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $250 −$250 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $1,016 +$984 +97%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $547 +$469 +86%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $877 −$877 -100%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $409 −$409 -100%
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $400 −$400 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $1,200 +$878 +73%
Granada CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $880 +$720 +82%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $500 +$380 +76%
Ulsan HD FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $471 +$438 +93%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $1,016 +$655 +64%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $547 +$469 +86%
West Bromwich Albion FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $546 −$546 -100%
Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $500 −$500 -100%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $466 −$466 -100%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $3,307 +$2,359 +71%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $1,912 +$1,396 +73%
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Riyadh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 24 $1,091 +$821 +75%
UD Las Palmas vs. Granada CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Bristol City FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $969 −$969 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 4.5 Apr 09 $996 −$996 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $538 +$457 +85%
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $536 −$536 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. SD Eibar: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $538 −$538 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $537 −$537 -100%
Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $398 +$571 +144%
Real Zaragoza vs. Real Racing Club: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Alianza FC vs. AD Pasto: O/U 1.5 Apr 02 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
SD Huesca vs. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: O/U 2.5 Apr 02 $1,906 −$1,906 -100%
Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa vs. FC Andorra: O/U 4.5 Apr 02 $130 −$130 -100%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Apr 02 $631 −$631 -100%
FC Andorra vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 01 $1,184 +$722 +61%
FC Andorra vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 01 $1,064 +$1,020 +96%
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 4.5 Mar 31 $938 +$1,245 +133%
Sweden vs. Poland: O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $1,083 +$1,136 +105%
Cyprus vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Mar 30 $563 +$567 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $572 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,555 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,989 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $216 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,323 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $888 5h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $344 6h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,017 9h
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $276 18d
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2,421 19d
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,422 19d
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1,012 19d
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,013 19d
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $505 19d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $112 25d
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $652 31d
Atlético Nacional vs. CD Tolima: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $612 32d
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $546 50d
FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1,088 50d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 20¢ $247 56d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 21¢ $272 56d
Konyaspor vs. Trabzonspor: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $250 58d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,000 58d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,016 58d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,016 58d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $547 58d
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $877 59d
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,078 59d
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,200 59d
Paris FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $400 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.07 · official $224.05 · 335 history records