Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46d4…30fc other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$272 (-5%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$573per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$1,785
sports 45% +$1,402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
≤30d 9 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
≤90d 9 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
all 9 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 33% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.4% 33% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -34.4% 33% -23.4%
15% -40.7% 33% -30.8%
20% -46.5% 22% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$569 vs −$348 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$573
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$229 +224%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $286 −$219 -77%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,221 +$1,139 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $305 −$291 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,167 −$893 -76%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $714 +$338 +47%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$37 -71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$344 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $331 18m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 21m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 37m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 51m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $59 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $154 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,152 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $14 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $305 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,016 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $244 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,013 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $122 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $85 8h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $549 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $153 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $221 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $495 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 9h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 9h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $101 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records