Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46d4…64a6 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$13
politics 23% $0
world 18% $0
other 16% −$7
crypto 3% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 12 -9.1% -17.8% 17% 0% -9.3%
all 40 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 5% -9.0%
10% -23.4% 0% -17.7%
15% -30.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage449d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $22 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $6 $0 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $166 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $166 $0 -0%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 17 $163 +$3 +2%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 17 $180 $0 -0%
Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 8.5 Mar 17 $62 +$3 +5%
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) Mar 17 $167 +$10 +6%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $18 $0 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 15 $4 $0 -6%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $153 +$1 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 17 $1 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $16 $0 -3%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $3 −$2 -83%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Mar 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $23 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $3 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $6 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 19h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $32 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $32 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $29 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $27 47h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $20 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records