Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46d5…4bd3 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-4%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 53% 7% -10.8%
≤30d 17 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 12% -13.9%
≤90d 17 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 12% -13.9%
all 17 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 12% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 12% -13.9%
10% -21.5% 6% -22.2%
15% -29.1% 6% -29.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage8d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $189 −$10 -5%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $51 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $46 +$4 +8%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $50 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $67 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $29 −$9 -30%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $43 +$17 +39%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $35 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $38 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $32 −$14 -45%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5) Jun 20 $27 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 −$3 -10%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $18 +$2 +11%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $57 −$30 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 95¢ $95 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 79¢ $79 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 67¢ $67 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 75¢ $76 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 36¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 68¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 68¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 96¢ $29 14h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 84¢ $25 14h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 74¢ $22 15h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 99¢ $27 15h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 92¢ $46 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $50 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 99¢ $50 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 96¢ $48 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 70¢ $16 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 82¢ $19 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 93¢ $19 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 20¢ $4 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 20¢ $6 2d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 72¢ $7 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 72¢ $7 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $14 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $14 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $5 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 99¢ $5 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 99¢ $10 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 98¢ $20 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 80¢ $16 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 78¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records