Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46d9…ffd3 crypto 44 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$83 (+38%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$30
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$17
sports 14% +$50
other 13% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.4% -41.6% 8% 8% +11.6%
≤30d 44 -11.5% -19.9% 25% 25% -0.4%
≤90d 44 -11.5% -19.9% 25% 25% -0.4%
all 44 -11.5% -19.9% 25% 25% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 25% -0.4%
10% -27.6% 25% -9.9%
15% -34.6% 23% -18.6%
20% -41.0% 23% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$60 +596%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$34 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$8 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$17 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +163%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $10 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $55 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $34 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records