Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46da…82d4 other 129 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+1%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 115L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$9
politics 34% −$8
sports 8% +$106
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 +3.8% -6.1% 8% 7% -9.2%
all 128 +3.7% -6.1% 10% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 9% -9.0%
10% -15.1% 6% -17.7%
15% -23.3% 3% -25.7%
20% -30.8% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×22.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 115
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage110d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $148 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $224 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $366 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $404 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $136 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $255 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $366 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $127 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $152 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $127 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $266 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $131 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $150 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $143 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $125 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $292 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $127 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $192 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $418 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $289 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $270 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $125 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 41h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $21 5d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $21 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 9d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 17d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $148 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $148 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $126 22d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $126 23d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $130 23d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $130 24d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $144 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $144 25d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.00 · official $14.00 (match) · 378 history records