Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46dd…9737 politics 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$24
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
other 1% −$1
world 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 96 -7.2% -16.0% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage696d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $109 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $54 $0 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $56 $0 +0%
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Feb 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Maccabi TLV win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iranian oil in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
RFK Jr & Cheryl Hines divorce in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran peace deal in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Austin Scott be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Garrett Wilson be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Young Boys win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Christian Braun win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Hunter Biden fined over 100k in gun case? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Bills make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $0 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Nov 18 $0 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 18h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $54 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $54 27d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 28d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 35d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $7 36d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $47 36d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 44d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 45d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $55 48d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 48d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 69d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 69d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 74d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 74d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $56 79d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $56 79d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 87d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 88d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 97d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 97d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 99d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 100d
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL No 100¢ $56 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 221 history records