Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x46dd…257e sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,973 (-21%) realized −$6,973 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,122per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$324est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$769
7 days−$859
14 days−$6,557
30 days−$6,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$6,854
other 15% +$297
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.5% -0.9% 50% 42% -14.5%
≤30d 30 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 50% -27.2%
≤90d 30 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 50% -27.2%
all 30 +4.5% -5.4% 53% 50% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 50% -27.2%
10% -14.5% 43% -34.1%
15% -22.8% 30% -40.5%
20% -30.3% 20% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,300) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$380 vs −$902 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,973
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$324
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1,122
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $1,616 +$769 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $512 +$1,115 +218%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,118 −$2,118 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,113 −$835 -75%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,009 +$425 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,008 +$366 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,012 +$632 +62%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,223 +$66 +3%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $206 −$145 -71%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,308 −$164 -12%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2,998 −$942 -31%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $510 −$28 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $236 −$236 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $506 +$287 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $909 −$393 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,196 −$3,196 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5,190 −$4,126 -80%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $377 −$18 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $306 −$22 -7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $205 −$2 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $604 +$187 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $597 +$65 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,300 +$296 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $506 −$404 -80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,013 +$723 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,011 +$585 +58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $202 +$66 +33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,010 +$263 +26%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $52 +$55 +106%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $798 +$172 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,385 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,616 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,135 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $492 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $409 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,010 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1,108 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $257 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 17¢ $20 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,113 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,434 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,009 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,375 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,644 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,012 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,008 6d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,290 6d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,223 6d
Senegal leading at halftime? SELL Yes $60 6d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes $206 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $1,144 6d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 51¢ $1,984 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1,308 6d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,923 6d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 34¢ $482 6d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 70¢ $72 6d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $75 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records