Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x46de…d4e8 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$111 (+10%) realized +$113 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1
sports 45% +$95
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +18.8% +7.5% 59% 59% -0.1%
≤30d 29 +18.8% +7.5% 59% 59% -0.1%
≤90d 30 +17.5% +6.3% 57% 57% -0.1%
all 30 +17.5% +6.3% 57% 57% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 57% -0.1%
10% -3.9% 50% -9.7%
15% -13.2% 43% -18.4%
20% -21.7% 40% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$25 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$113
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage39d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$2 -6%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 +$45 +90%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 −$44 -62%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $30 −$10 -32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $30 +$32 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$13 -61%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $73 +$42 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 +$15 +32%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$27 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -81%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 +$17 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 12 $1 $0 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $29 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $31 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $31 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 9h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 9h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 36¢ $21 9h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $30 10h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $50 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 22h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $20 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $8 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $73 44h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $20 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 44h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $47 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.74 · official $187.74 (match) · 73 history records