Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46df…4562 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%23W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$23
other 24% −$1
sports 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 10% 10% -9.3%
≤30d 12 +4.3% -5.7% 17% 17% -11.1%
≤90d 63 +43.1% +29.5% 37% 35% -15.7%
all 63 +43.1% +29.5% 37% 35% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 35% -15.7%
10% +17.1% 33% -23.7%
15% +5.8% 33% -31.1%
20% -4.6% 30% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)63 / 69
History coverage35d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $6 +$48 +784%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $13 −$7 -55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 26 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 26 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 26 $12 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $16 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $7 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $1 +$3 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 26 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $21 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 25 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 25 $7 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 25 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +112%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 25 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 25 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 25 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $2 +$4 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 25 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 25 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $2 +$11 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 25 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Germany vs. Paraguay: BUY 35¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $44 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.10 · official $31.18 · 173 history records