Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46df…3e49
crypto · 53 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses43 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 85¢ 89¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.9% -13.1% 79% 62% -12.9%
≤30d 52 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 46% -12.7%
≤90d 52 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 46% -12.7%
all 52 -3.6% -12.8% 83% 46% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 46% -12.7%
10% -21.2% 13% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 0% -28.7%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.05 · official $0.88 (match) · 100 history records