Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46e2…96a8
crypto · 133 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$229 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$241 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses49 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 2 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$241
14 days−$241
30 days−$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +81%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$7 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$14 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$6 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$18 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $25 +$35 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$17 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$11 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$223
weather 3% +$12
other 2% −$22
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $16 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 30h
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -11.7% -20.1% 37% 34% -21.1%
≤30d 131 -11.7% -20.1% 37% 34% -21.1%
≤90d 131 -11.7% -20.1% 37% 34% -21.1%
all 131 -11.7% -20.1% 37% 34% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 34% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 34% -28.6%
15% -34.7% 29% -35.5%
20% -41.1% 26% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.56 · official $22.56 (match) · 400 history records