Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46e5…67dd crypto 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-5%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate69%38W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$26
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$94
other 15% +$39
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 60% +16.0%
≤30d 55 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 44% -13.5%
≤90d 55 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 44% -13.5%
all 55 -1.3% -10.7% 69% 44% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 44% -13.5%
10% -19.3% 27% -21.7%
15% -27.1% 16% -29.3%
20% -34.2% 13% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses38 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$21 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $45 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $60 −$60 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 15h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 73¢ $8 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 10d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 11d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.03 · official $5.03 (match) · 180 history records