Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46ea…3201
crypto · 132 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$643 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,400 · open −$75
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,876
Realized−$1,400
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses39 / 70
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions23
Markets (closed)109 / 132
History coverage106d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 23 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$897
7 days−$1,453
14 days−$1,453
30 days−$1,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $106 −$4 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $102 −$8 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nuggets Nuggets 49¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $780 −$638 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $238 −$145 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $422 −$100 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $358 +$164 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$612 +596%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $143 −$140 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $608 −$600 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $79 +$148 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $319 −$319 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $314 +$539 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $347 −$111 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $132 −$66 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $309 +$1,197 +387%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$27 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $183 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $635 −$600 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $276 +$32 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $303 +$132 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 07 $40 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 07 $213 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 07 $73 +$57 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 07 $30 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 07 $97 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 07 $71 −$21 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$11 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 07 $10 +$63 +626%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 07 $20 +$80 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 07 $361 +$331 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 07 $70 −$70 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$647
other 30% −$1,141
sports 17% +$424
world 1% −$40
politics 0% −$29
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $206 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $206 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 9h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $28 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $102 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $113 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $58 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -25.3% -32.4% 24% 24% -21.7%
≤30d 34 -25.3% -32.4% 24% 24% -21.7%
≤90d 34 -25.3% -32.4% 24% 24% -21.7%
all 109 -10.4% -18.9% 36% 32% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 32% -15.9%
10% -26.7% 30% -24.0%
15% -33.8% 28% -31.3%
20% -40.3% 23% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,876.27 · official $2,877.22 (match) · 379 history records