Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46f0…fe05
sports · 302 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$18,930 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18,653 · open −$278
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$164
Realized−$18,653
Unrealized−$278
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses105 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$653
Open positions2
Markets (closed)300 / 302
History coverage427d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 2 History 300 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,731
7 days−$686
14 days+$1,630
30 days+$1,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 28¢ $250 $142 −$108 (-43%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 48¢ 6¢ $192 $22 −$170 (-89%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 1? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ 0¢ $216 $0 −$216 (-100%)
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions NC Dinos 49¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 44¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $126 $0 −$126 (-100%)
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $899 $0 −$899 (-100%)
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions Doosan Bears 49¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers New York Yankees 44¢ 0¢ $269 $0 −$269 (-100%)
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Lotte Giants Lotte Giants 53¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $63 $0 −$63 (-100%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Lotte Giants Lotte Giants 45¢ 0¢ $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Texas Rangers 76¢ 0¢ $233 $0 −$233 (-100%)
Kang Sun-woo in jail by March 31? No 18¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Baltimore Orioles 23¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals Kansas City Royals 22¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $116 $0 −$116 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Athletics 37¢ 0¢ $114 $0 −$114 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $409 −$96 -23%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $390 −$277 -71%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $477 −$194 -41%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $106 +$108 +102%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 13 $223 −$74 -33%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $219 −$216 -99%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 12 $298 +$343 +115%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $243 −$243 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,030 −$189 -18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $497 −$490 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $75 −$74 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 12 $199 −$131 -66%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $158 +$142 +90%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $64 −$63 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $315 −$309 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $181 −$78 -43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $203 −$34 -17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $269 +$79 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $219 −$11 -5%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 11 $327 +$298 +91%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 11 $128 −$126 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $97 +$102 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 11 $227 −$200 -88%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 11 $236 −$71 -30%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 +$198 +194%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 10 $211 +$189 +89%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 09 $93 −$92 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $115 +$85 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $215 +$139 +65%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 09 $112 −$55 -49%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $191 −$81 -43%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $259 +$141 +55%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $243 +$226 +93%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5) Jun 07 $60 +$39 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $34 −$33 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Kia Tigers Jun 06 $281 +$361 +128%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $176 +$123 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $140 −$99 -71%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $252 +$597 +237%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $0 +$2 +488%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 04 $225 +$225 +100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $1,416 +$2,233 +158%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $640 +$163 +25%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $187 −$65 -35%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% an Jun 03 $59 −$19 -33%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $35 −$7 -20%
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $22 −$21 -96%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 02 $203 −$200 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions May 31 $223 −$220 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $148 +$71 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% −$15,813
politics 41% +$4,370
other 9% −$5,750
crypto 3% −$1,630
world 2% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $313 3m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 18¢ $96 5m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 25¢ $17 7m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $284 26m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 81¢ $253 27m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 44m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $163 53m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 40¢ $204 57m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 94¢ $215 58m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 45¢ $137 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 69¢ $21 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 42¢ $85 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 38¢ $149 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $195 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $254 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $477 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $219 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $223 2h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers SELL Doosan Bears 100¢ $641 14h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY NC Dinos 45¢ $243 17h
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 46¢ $298 17h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $841 23h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $497 23h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $75 26h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 20¢ $68 26h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $72 27h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ $127 27h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $64 32h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $116 32h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 21¢ $103 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.7% -12.9% 39% 39% -16.8%
≤30d 154 -4.1% -13.2% 40% 37% -4.2%
≤90d 213 -4.6% -13.7% 38% 37% -6.0%
all 300 -3.0% -12.3% 35% 33% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 33% -22.0%
10% -20.7% 33% -29.5%
15% -28.3% 31% -36.3%
20% -35.4% 27% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.45 · official $164.50 (match) · 3500 history records