Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46f1…701f sports 489 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$932 (+0%) realized +$3,348 · open −$2,416
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate35%171W / 312L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Fees−$2,694est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$3,201
finance 30% +$9,610
tech 18% −$2,232
other 9% −$2,502
world 1% −$27
politics 1% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
weather 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -5.6% -14.6% 29% 6% -10.6%
≤30d 321 -7.3% -16.1% 29% 9% -11.3%
≤90d 483 -2.0% -11.3% 35% 13% -8.1%
all 483 -2.0% -11.3% 35% 13% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 13% -8.1%
10% -19.8% 10% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 7% -24.9%
20% -34.7% 6% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$524) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$83 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$5,014
Realized+$3,348
Unrealized−$2,416
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses171 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$2,694
Open positions6
Markets (closed)483 / 489
History coverage65d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 82¢ 46¢ $4,181 $2,335 −$1,846 (-44%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 72¢ 91¢ $1,108 $1,410 +$302 (+27%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? No 66¢ 54¢ $1,290 $1,056 −$235 (-18%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 60¢ 10¢ $765 $127 −$637 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? No 80¢ 80¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 15 $346 +$83 +24%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $265 −$30 -12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 15 $127 −$17 -13%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $96 −$14 -15%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 15 $1,339 −$6 -0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $78 +$5 +6%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 15 $215 −$17 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $2,237 −$18 -1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $290 −$52 -18%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Jun 15 $111 +$44 +40%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in June? Jun 15 $91 +$29 +32%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $195 in June? Jun 15 $755 −$382 -51%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 15 2026 Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -52%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? Jun 15 $144 −$3 -2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $170 −$22 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 15 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 −$47 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? Jun 14 $96 −$41 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $47 −$13 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $98 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? Jun 14 $260 −$19 -8%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $576 +$76 +13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $961 −$17 -2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 14 $600 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$1 -19%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $204 +$3 +2%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in June? Jun 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in June? Jun 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $989 −$20 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $340 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 81¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $86 23m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 11¢ $203 44m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? SELL No 94¢ $341 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $330 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $200 3h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $197 3h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 3h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 SELL No 15¢ $79 5h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 16¢ $3 5h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $170 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 18¢ $93 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $63 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $29 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $1,320 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $89 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $30 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 5h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 5h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 5h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $14 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $969 6h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 39¢ $7 6h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 6h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $137 6h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $321 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,013.61 · official $5,013.61 (match) · 3204 history records