Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:49:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x46f1…fdb0 crypto 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%26W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$1
sports 36% +$58
other 26% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +8.6% -1.7% 50% 35% -5.6%
≤30d 52 +8.6% -1.7% 50% 35% -5.6%
≤90d 52 +8.6% -1.7% 50% 35% -5.6%
all 52 +8.6% -1.7% 50% 35% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 35% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 25% -14.7%
15% -19.7% 19% -22.9%
20% -27.6% 13% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses26 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 $0 -9%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $72 +$29 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 −$7 -16%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -73%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +137%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 13m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 24m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 32m
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 33m
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 34m
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $44 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $33 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $33 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $24 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 9h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.28 · official $24.28 (match) · 131 history records