Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
46 0x46f2…e64e crypto 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$446 (-4%) realized −$296 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%82W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,070now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$312
14 days+$265
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$809
sports 20% −$79
other 19% +$304
world 2% −$160
finance 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.2% -13.3% 36% 36% +0.9%
≤30d 26 -7.9% -16.6% 35% 35% -0.8%
≤90d 26 -7.9% -16.6% 35% 35% -0.8%
all 153 -9.4% -18.0% 54% 42% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -16.2%
10% -25.9% 35% -24.2%
15% -33.0% 27% -31.5%
20% -39.6% 23% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$56 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,070
Realized−$296
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses82 / 71
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)153 / 156
History coverage101d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $173 +$197 +114%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $122 +$221 +180%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $123 −$105 -85%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$331 +216%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $153 −$73 -47%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $91 +$101 +111%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $256 +$609 +238%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $52 +$29 +56%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 14 $107 −$20 -18%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$69 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $83 +$142 +172%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $58 +$84 +146%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $48 −$47 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 13 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 13 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 12 $50 −$21 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $122 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $122 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $122 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $121 28h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $173 40h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 40h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 40h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 41h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 41h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $122 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $123 47h
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $121 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 19¢ $102 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $153 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $81 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $153 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $30 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $61 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 73¢ $81 3d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 46¢ $52 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $93 3d
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL Yes 45¢ $88 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $163 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $36 4d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $112 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,069.82 · official $1,069.82 (match) · 417 history records