Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
46 0x46f4…b269 other 47 markets active 2d ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$941 (-5%) realized −$941 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$404per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$137
sports 24% −$633
other 20% −$116
economics 9% −$24
politics 9% −$241
culture 5% +$210
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +31.7% +19.1% 100% 50% +1.5%
≤30d 2 +31.7% +19.1% 100% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 4 -34.2% -40.4% 50% 25% -86.4%
all 47 -6.2% -15.2% 17% 13% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 13% -14.0%
10% -23.3% 11% -22.2%
15% -30.7% 4% -29.8%
20% -37.5% 2% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$754) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$52 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$941
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage234d
Avg bet$404
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $35 +$21 +61%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 18 $169 +$3 +2%
Spurs vs. Heat Mar 23 $1,276 −$1,276 -100%
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mar 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 20 $1,211 +$322 +27%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 11 $873 +$340 +39%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 04 $259 +$31 +12%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $141 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $699 $0 -0%
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 27 $704 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Feb 23 $857 −$14 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 23 $458 +$1 +0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $866 −$33 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $743 −$8 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 11 $746 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $194 −$1 -0%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 11 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $1,676 −$24 -1%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Feb 10 $36 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 09 $754 −$10 -1%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 09 $189 −$189 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 07 $1,521 −$18 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 04 $850 −$10 -1%
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 03 $1,075 −$137 -13%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 02 $145 +$41 +28%
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68t Feb 02 $879 +$210 +24%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 01 $901 −$23 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $308 −$1 -0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31? Jan 26 $74 −$1 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $111 −$2 -2%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 19 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President event Jan 01 $159 −$3 -2%
US strike on Syria by December 31? Dec 21 $61 −$7 -11%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West? Dec 21 $64 −$4 -6%
Will ANO form a government after Czech election ? Nov 25 $22 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition Nov 22 $21 $0 -1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 22 $22 $0 -1%
Will Workday (WDAY) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 20 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Nov 20 $20 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Nov 20 $28 $0 -1%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? Nov 19 $27 −$6 -23%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Nov 19 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 19 $188 −$4 -2%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Nov 18 $158 −$79 -50%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 06 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Nov 05 $33 −$10 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $173 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $169 33d
Spurs vs. Heat BUY Heat 35¢ $1,276 89d
Clippers vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 30¢ $39 91d
Spurs vs. Clippers BUY Spurs 79¢ $1,211 96d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 72¢ $873 103d
Mavericks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 84¢ $168 110d
Mavericks vs. Hornets SELL Hornets 82¢ $82 110d
Mavericks vs. Hornets SELL Hornets 83¢ $8 110d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 88¢ $141 110d
Mavericks vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 83¢ $91 110d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 111d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 111d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $663 111d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $308 111d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 111d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $257 111d
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? SELL Yes 100¢ $704 112d
Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? BUY Yes 100¢ $704 113d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 88¢ $141 117d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 62¢ $843 117d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 63¢ $857 117d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $152 117d
Government shutdown on Saturday? SELL No 78¢ $702 127d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 82¢ $734 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $735 128d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $743 128d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $746 129d
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $746 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.19 · official $56.19 (match) · 151 history records