Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:40:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x46f7…0f92
sports · 154 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,122 +60%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,073 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized+$1,073
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 78
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions48
Markets (closed)106 / 154
History coverage15d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 48 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days+$1,169
14 days+$1,086
30 days+$1,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 5¢ 28¢ $3 $16 +$14 (+450%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 24¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Julia Grabher 50¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 24¢ 34¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+44%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) Semenistaja 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? No 50¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+100%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+65%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? No 25¢ 37¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+48%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+42%)
Will Germany be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 77¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 40¢ 41¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? No 50¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Nuria Brancaccio 50¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? No 60¢ 58¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -66%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -44%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 $0 -15%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $135 −$7 -5%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -96%
Australia to score first vs. Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 14 $8 $0 +7%
Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 $0 -4%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 $0 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 −$2 -40%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $616 −$332 -54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $98 +$1,147 +1176%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$2 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% +$688
sports 36% +$562
weather 8% −$134
crypto 4% −$61
world 1% +$1
politics 1% +$2
tech 1% +$3
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $2 5m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $2 5m
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) BUY Semenistaja 50¢ $2 5m
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) BUY Semenistaja 50¢ $2 5m
Will Germany be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY No 14¢ $2 7m
Will Germany be the highest-scoring team in Group E during the Group S BUY No 14¢ $2 7m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 0¢ $2 10m
Germany to win the second half? BUY No 5¢ $2 17m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 4¢ $12 19m
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 25¢ $2 33m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 12¢ $2 35m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 12¢ $2 36m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 42m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $2 42m
Germany to win the second half? BUY No 24¢ $2 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 1¢ $2 49m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2 56m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 13¢ $35 57m
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $2 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 4¢ $2 58m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 4¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $2 59m
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 50¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +0.0% -9.5% 28% 20% +20.5%
≤30d 106 -12.8% -21.1% 26% 19% +12.4%
≤90d 106 -12.8% -21.1% 26% 19% +12.4%
all 106 -12.8% -21.1% 26% 19% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 19% +12.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 15% +1.6%
15% -35.5% 11% -8.2%
20% -41.9% 10% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.77 · official $110.50 · 514 history records