Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46fb…8eae sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,556 (-33%) realized −$5,895 · open +$339
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%22W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$975now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days−$477
14 days−$477
30 days−$1,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$638
crypto 32% −$3,826
other 10% −$360
finance 4% −$679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-47.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -42.1% -47.7% 21% 21% -34.5%
≤30d 35 -36.1% -42.2% 29% 29% -37.0%
≤90d 97 -41.8% -47.4% 23% 23% -42.9%
all 97 -41.8% -47.4% 23% 23% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.4% 23% -42.9%
10% -52.4% 22% -48.3%
15% -57.0% 22% -53.3%
20% -61.2% 22% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$147 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$975
Realized−$5,895
Unrealized+$339
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses22 / 75
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions4
Markets (closed)97 / 101
History coverage84d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? No 11¢ 21¢ $291 $553 +$262 (+90%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? No 5¢ 14¢ $130 $351 +$221 (+170%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $180 $56 −$124 (-69%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $35 $16 −$19 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $113 −$66 -59%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $184 +$325 +177%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? Jun 24 $122 −$115 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $96 −$90 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 24 $103 −$97 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $203 +$218 +107%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $96 +$176 +184%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? Jun 20 $347 −$326 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 18 $134 −$126 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 17 $82 −$77 -94%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $341 −$332 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $183 +$154 +84%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $801 −$790 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $203 +$36 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $82 +$74 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs McCartney Kessler May 28 $133 −$130 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $102 −$24 -24%
Roland Garros WTA: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Kimberly Birrell May 28 $152 +$131 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $286 +$258 +90%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro May 28 $254 −$250 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $195 −$49 -25%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 27 $74 −$70 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $214 −$138 -64%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $457 +$357 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $102 −$99 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $28 −$26 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Katie Volynets May 27 $300 +$286 +95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 27 $124 −$116 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $111 −$104 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 27? May 27 $165 −$159 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $499 −$492 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $106 −$100 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $700 −$679 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 25 $211 −$198 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Daria Kasatkina vs Zeynep Sonmez May 25 $240 −$235 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $123 −$90 -73%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $474 −$465 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $163 −$160 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 25? May 24 $228 −$214 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $162 −$94 -58%
Roland Garros WTA: Clara Tauson vs Daria Snigur May 24 $102 +$165 +162%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY Yes 9¢ $64 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 25? BUY Yes 9¢ $128 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 11¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 11¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 4¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 5¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY No 6¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 11¢ $154 1h
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov SELL Abedallah Shelbayh 10¢ $47 1h
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov BUY Abedallah Shelbayh 23¢ $113 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 88¢ $509 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 31¢ $184 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY No 6¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY No 5¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $21 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY No 5¢ $7 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY No 2¢ $32 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY No 4¢ $53 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 46¢ $102 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson SELL Clara Tauson 97¢ $421 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 46¢ $203 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 93¢ $272 7h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 32¢ $96 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $101 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $75 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22? BUY Yes 12¢ $134 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 21? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $975.09 · official $951.15 · 210 history records