Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46fb…cf9b other 30 markets active 5h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$1
other 23% −$1
politics 11% +$1
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 30 -3.7% -12.8% 50% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -10.3%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage464d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $61 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $28 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $8 $0 -5%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $2 $0 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $7 $0 +2%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $7 $0 -2%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 13 $4 $0 -9%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 07 $1 $0 +19%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 −$2 -16%
Did Kanye sell his twitter account? Mar 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 5h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $28 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $29 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $13 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $17 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $29 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $32 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $28 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records