Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:14:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

46 0x46fc…2e26 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$146 (+12%) realized +$148 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%11W / 12L

Drawdown43%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day22.4pace

Fees−$10est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+1.0%	-8.6%	48%	48%	+4.1%
≤30d	23	+1.0%	-8.6%	48%	48%	+4.1%
≤90d	23	+1.0%	-8.6%	48%	48%	+4.1%
all	23	+1.0%	-8.6%	48%	48%	+4.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.4 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.6%	48%	+4.1%
10% ← realistic here	-17.4%	43%	-5.9%
15%	-25.4%	39%	-15.0%
20%	-32.7%	30%	-23.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -3% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$128

Realized+$148

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses11 / 12

Est. fees paid−$10

Open positions3

Markets (closed)23 / 26

History coverage2d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day22.4

Drawdown43%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	71¢	70¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	New Zealand	65¢	64¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	44¢	42¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$30	−$13	-42%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 21	$30	+$23	+76%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 21	$71	−$71	-100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$177	+$87	+49%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 21	$55	−$55	-99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$61	+$20	+33%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$51	+$30	+59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	+$35	+69%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$30	+$20	+64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$10	+$15	+145%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$30	+$6	+20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$14	+$13	+93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$151	+$70	+46%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$11	−$4	-33%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5	Jun 19	$15	$0	-2%
Türkiye leading at halftime?	Jun 19	$15	−$1	-7%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$15	−$1	-5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score	Jun 19	$15	−$1	-6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$15	−$15	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$61	+$38	+62%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	35¢	$17	49m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	65¢	$51	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$20	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$30	1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	64¢	$68	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	70¢	$71	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	44¢	$31	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	SELL IR Iran	100¢	$54	2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY IR Iran	56¢	$30	6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	49¢	$30	7h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	59¢	$30	7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$71	9h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	65¢	$71	11h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	68¢	$71	11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	98¢	$264	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$40	21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	8¢	$5	23h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	70¢	$55	23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	SELL Côte dIvoire	100¢	$52	25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	100¢	$81	25h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	58¢	$30	28h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	SELL Côte dIvoire	57¢	$29	28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$36	28h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	58¢	$30	28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$86	28h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$50	29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$25	29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$30	30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	40¢	$10	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.24 · official $128.24 (match) · 62 history records