Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x46fe…f970 world 137 markets active 21h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$302 (-2%) realized −$300 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate59%74W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$319
14 days−$391
30 days−$337
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$208
politics 40% −$410
other 10% −$120
finance 4% +$13
sports 3% +$27
tech 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$59
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 0% -25.7%
≤30d 12 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 25% -19.7%
≤90d 55 -3.9% -13.1% 58% 22% -13.6%
all 125 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 18% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 18% -11.7%
10% -20.2% 8% -20.1%
15% -27.9% 5% -27.9%
20% -35.0% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$24 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$300
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses74 / 51
Open positions12
Markets (closed)125 / 137
History coverage143d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 11 $258 +$6 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $1,522 −$324 -21%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $332 −$73 -22%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $31 −$10 -31%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? May 31 $156 +$38 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 25 $30 −$28 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $17 +$11 +61%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 19 $572 +$52 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $45 −$10 -22%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$15 +288%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 10 $17 −$15 -88%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 10 $547 −$179 -33%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? May 01 $359 +$6 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $143 +$7 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $54 +$4 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 24 $100 +$27 +27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $200 +$2 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $39 −$1 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 17 $1 $0 -15%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $147 −$19 -13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $293 +$14 +5%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $430 +$116 +27%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $217 +$37 +17%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $200 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 04 $22 +$2 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 01 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $132 +$6 +5%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? Apr 01 $489 +$95 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 31 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $204 +$16 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 30 $186 −$3 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Mar 28 $118 +$2 +2%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? Mar 28 $275 −$3 -1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Mar 27 $392 +$12 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No $5 20h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $10 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $40 20h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $20 20h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No $5 20h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $45 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $264 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $5 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $13 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $1 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 84¢ $68 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 41¢ $68 11d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $258 11d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 62¢ $260 11d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 77¢ $332 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 24¢ $333 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $21 16d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $25 16d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 16d
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $35 17d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 17d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 64¢ $1 17d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House SELL Yes 19¢ $19 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 27¢ $10 20d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY Yes 20¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.46 · official $317.10 (match) · 672 history records