Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
47 0x4700…41ce crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-1%) realized −$326 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%91W / 55L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$21
14 days−$28
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$352
other 23% +$59
finance 2% +$99
world 2% +$4
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$84
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 12% -10.1%
≤30d 16 -5.3% -14.4% 50% 12% -7.8%
≤90d 44 -18.4% -26.1% 50% 9% -11.2%
all 146 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 8% -10.5%
10% -24.1% 3% -19.1%
15% -31.5% 3% -26.9%
20% -38.2% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$33 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$6,352
Realized−$326
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses91 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)146 / 159
History coverage247d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 95¢ 93¢ $1,388 $1,360 −$28 (-2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,266 $1,293 +$27 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $1,154 $1,199 +$46 (+4%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,063 $1,089 +$26 (+2%)
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $728 $746 +$18 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $340 $339 −$0 (-0%)
Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch? No 95¢ 97¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Unit FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 87¢ 88¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Unit FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 80¢ 80¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 29 $2,868 +$27 +1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $42 +$11 +26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $14 −$5 -36%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 25 $17 −$4 -22%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 25 $189 −$40 -21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $64 −$14 -23%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $72 +$2 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -61%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 04 $379 −$29 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June? Jun 03 $82 +$118 +144%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 03 $262 −$50 -19%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 01 $1,371 +$43 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 01 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $546 +$54 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 26? May 26 $34 −$29 -86%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 10 $115 +$15 +13%
Abstract FDV above $3B one day after launch? May 06 $97 +$1 +1%
Gensyn FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? May 04 $98 +$1 +2%
Space FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 April 20-26? Apr 25 $176 −$151 -86%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 April 20-26? Apr 23 $512 +$38 +8%
Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 21 $77 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 19 $810 +$100 +12%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 17 $1,802 +$47 +3%
Barstool After Dark: Will the crew bowl a 300? Apr 15 $138 −$88 -63%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 15 $168 +$10 +6%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $141 −$98 -70%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Apr 10 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Apr 10 $139 −$139 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $488 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 2? Apr 09 $37 −$32 -85%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Solstice launch a token by December 31 2025? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $400 +$10 +2%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 25? Apr 08 $54 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $465 +$3 +1%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 08 $97 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Apr 01 $181 +$19 +10%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $288 +$11 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $436 +$14 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? Mar 23 $35 +$2 +4%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 21 $478 +$7 +2%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 21 $466 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Mar 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $282 +$7 +3%
Hyperlend FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 28 $96 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $92 16m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $94 19m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $94 20m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $95 22m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $95 22m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $26 22m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $95 23m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $17 23m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $95 24m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $1 26m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $22 28m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $95 45m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $12 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $14 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $96 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $85 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 97¢ $193 3h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 3h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 96¢ $11 5h
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2,896 5h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY No 98¢ $49 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $17 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 23h
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,351.87 · official $6,347.32 (match) · 769 history records