Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4701…446f politics 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$74 (-2%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate4%4W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$2
other 35% −$1
sports 7% −$70
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -1.7% -11.1% 3% 2% -10.5%
all 107 -3.5% -12.7% 4% 2% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 2% -11.3%
10% -21.0% 1% -19.8%
15% -28.7% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses4 / 103
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage111d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $82 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 27 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $84 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $72 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $91 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $70 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $76 26d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 26d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $45 30d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $45 36d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $61 36d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 42d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1 44d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 45d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $18 45d
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $61 46d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 46d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 46d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 46d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 46d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 46d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 47d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 47d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 47d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 48d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $72 48d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $67 48d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $67 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $70 48d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $70 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 286 history records