Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4701…22bb crypto 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-12%) realized −$18 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$22
other 3% −$1
sports 1% −$1
politics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.4% -29.7% 46% 25% -27.0%
≤30d 30 -9.0% -17.7% 43% 23% -20.3%
≤90d 76 -19.6% -27.3% 49% 32% -24.2%
all 76 -19.6% -27.3% 49% 32% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 32% -24.2%
10% -34.2% 20% -31.4%
15% -40.6% 13% -38.0%
20% -46.4% 9% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 81
History coverage62d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 45¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$5 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 06 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 06 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 05 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 05 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 05 $11 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 52m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $1 53m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 3¢ $1 54m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.02 · official $3.02 · 236 history records