Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4701…c70d
crypto · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day109.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 2 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +66%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$6
sports 10% $0
weather 6% −$2
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.9% -23.9% 23% 23% -16.2%
≤30d 26 -15.9% -23.9% 23% 23% -16.2%
≤90d 26 -15.9% -23.9% 23% 23% -16.2%
all 26 -15.9% -23.9% 23% 23% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover109.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 23% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 12% -24.2%
15% -37.8% 4% -31.6%
20% -43.9% 4% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 112 history records