Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4702…5d04 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,025 (-20%) realized −$4,982 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%44W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$360est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$603
7 days−$971
14 days−$1,603
30 days−$2,562
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$4,684
other 4% −$574
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -23.7% -31.0% 35% 35% -24.8%
≤30d 83 -19.1% -26.8% 36% 36% -26.3%
≤90d 122 -25.0% -32.1% 36% 35% -29.2%
all 122 -25.0% -32.1% 36% 35% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 35% -29.2%
10% -38.6% 34% -35.9%
15% -44.6% 31% -42.1%
20% -50.0% 24% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$174 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$4,982
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses44 / 78
Est. fees paid−$360
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage47d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Ben Shelton 45¢ 44¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season So:sweet 23¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $206 −$194 -94%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $258 −$254 -98%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $309 −$50 -16%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $97 −$96 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 −$93 -97%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $97 +$96 +100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $170 +$236 +139%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $265 −$261 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $267 −$262 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $246 +$89 +36%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $181 +$262 +144%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $196 −$192 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $151 −$149 -99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $201 +$130 +64%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $150 +$284 +189%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $261 −$256 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $269 +$142 +53%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $287 −$18 -6%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 16 $147 −$145 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $145 −$143 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $242 +$338 +140%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $156 −$148 -95%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $246 +$152 +62%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $248 −$246 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$77 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $143 +$183 +128%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 15 $77 −$76 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $160 +$60 +38%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $103 −$101 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$54 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $78 +$96 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $76 −$72 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $113 −$110 -98%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $184 −$173 -94%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $129 −$126 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $289 +$137 +48%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $218 +$70 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $154 +$64 +41%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $146 −$143 -98%
ITF Martos: Rigele Te vs Joao Domingues Jun 09 $232 −$228 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Justina Gonzalez Daniele vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva Jun 09 $171 +$207 +121%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $60 +$112 +188%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $124 −$65 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $164 −$160 -98%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 06 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $248 −$243 -98%
ITF Caltanissetta: Luca Potenza vs Gabriele Piraino Jun 06 $146 +$124 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular BUY So:sweet 23¢ $42 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $203 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $206 7h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 47¢ $258 8h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 54¢ $259 8h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 52¢ $97 9h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $96 10h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 SELL Nightblood Gaming 100¢ $193 10h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Nightblood Gaming 49¢ $97 12h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $309 14h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $406 14h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 41¢ $170 15h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 46¢ $265 18h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 40¢ $267 20h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 100¢ $335 20h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 73¢ $246 21h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $443 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $196 33h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $181 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $151 40h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 100¢ $331 40h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $201 40h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Jerome Kym 11¢ $35 40h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $434 41h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 34¢ $150 41h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 30¢ $46 41h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $215 42h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $411 42h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $269 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $269 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.87 · official $197.87 (match) · 185 history records