Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4703…2a01 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-18%) realized −$67 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -45.8% -50.9% 20% 20% -35.8%
≤30d 10 -45.8% -50.9% 20% 20% -35.8%
≤90d 10 -45.8% -50.9% 20% 20% -35.8%
all 10 -45.8% -50.9% 20% 20% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.9% 20% -35.8%
10% -55.6% 20% -41.9%
15% -59.9% 20% -47.6%
20% -63.9% 20% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$22 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 +$60 +292%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 +$36 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 27¢ $29 21h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 22h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $17 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 73¢ $72 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $107 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $71 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.65 · official $128.65 (match) · 18 history records