Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4704…515e sports 459 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,403 (-4%) realized −$1,401 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%163W / 290L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$526est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$309
7 days−$397
14 days−$604
30 days−$1,815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$976
other 13% −$1,003
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 33% -13.1%
≤30d 439 -16.3% -24.3% 36% 36% -14.5%
≤90d 453 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 36% -14.9%
all 453 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 36% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 36% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 35% -23.0%
15% -38.8% 33% -30.5%
20% -44.8% 29% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$52 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$1,401
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses163 / 290
Est. fees paid−$526
Open positions2
Markets (closed)453 / 459
History coverage31d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 55¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $72 +$76 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $111 −$109 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $202 −$199 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $916 −$32 -4%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $198 −$195 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $399 −$201 -50%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $47 +$33 +70%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $249 +$275 +110%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $89 −$87 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $180 +$204 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $187 −$81 -43%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $129 +$73 +57%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $99 +$199 +201%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $147 +$82 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $190 −$42 -22%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $133 −$131 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 −$8 -8%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $43 +$48 +113%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $78 −$76 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 +$51 +89%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$122 +123%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $79 +$77 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $430 −$211 -49%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $212 −$81 -38%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $126 −$53 -42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $110 −$107 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$34 -17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 +$13 +14%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$60 +90%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $135 +$67 +49%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 +$86 +121%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $329 +$440 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $366 +$570 +156%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $100 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 19¢ $38 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $148 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $72 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $27 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $85 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 40¢ $202 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $203 8h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY HOTU 62¢ $198 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $101 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $100 10h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 10h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner SELL Phantom 100¢ $80 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P SELL Walczaki 93¢ $524 10h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 44¢ $198 11h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 36¢ $89 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 41¢ $51 11h
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 58¢ $47 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $384 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $180 14h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $180 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $80 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $27 21h
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 31¢ $106 21h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $187 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 45¢ $187 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $198 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $101 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.77 · official $333.77 · 824 history records