Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4708…9580 world 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$23 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate48%67W / 74L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$90
world 28% −$105
sports 16% +$234
weather 4% −$58
politics 3% −$8
finance 2% −$7
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 9% -8.1%
≤30d 78 -6.4% -15.3% 50% 10% -8.0%
≤90d 141 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 11% -9.1%
all 141 -14.4% -22.5% 48% 11% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 11% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 6% -17.8%
15% -36.7% 2% -25.8%
20% -42.9% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$660
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses67 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions6
Markets (closed)141 / 147
History coverage68d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $321 $321 −$1 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 95¢ 94¢ $293 $291 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA $33 $46 +$14 (+42%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA $29 $1 −$28 (-95%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner MODUS $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Leviatán Esports $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $9 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 21 $285 $0 -0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 21 $608 −$12 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2,787 −$34 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 21 $150 −$4 -3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $685 +$254 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $41 −$12 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$5 -49%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $34 −$20 -57%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $846 −$11 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $322 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 21? Jun 21 $380 −$18 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 −$19 -58%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $188 −$2 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 21 $367 −$6 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,546 −$14 -1%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $614 −$14 -2%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 21 $331 −$15 -5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $952 −$10 -1%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $224 −$5 -2%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $318 +$1 +0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 21 $224 −$3 -1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will there be 4+ Pentakills at MSI? Jun 20 $1 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$11 -50%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -12%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
NATO dissolves before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2 $0 -16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 18 $2 $0 -16%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 -1%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump enter Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +27%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +6%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $20 −$6 -31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $111 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA $32 12m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 95¢ $290 12m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $290 13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA $25 13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 94¢ $293 13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA $33 13m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $58 16m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $380 16m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $3 41m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $15 42m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $8 42m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $28 42m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $4 56m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $1 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $2 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $1 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $2 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $23 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA $13 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 95¢ $363 57m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $6 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $1 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 95¢ $367 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $0 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA $3 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 59m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports $0 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 93¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $659.57 · official $659.30 (match) · 1649 history records