Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x470b…c331 weather 963 markets active 0h ago coverage 67d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$199 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%696W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days−$43
14 days+$131
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$166
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 171 +0.7% -8.9% 81% 36% -11.1%
≤30d 352 -4.9% -14.0% 68% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 933 -0.7% -10.2% 75% 27% -9.7%
all 933 -0.7% -10.2% 75% 27% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 27% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 13% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 9% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses696 / 237
Open positions30
Markets (closed)933 / 963
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 933 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 97¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? No 90¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? No 92¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? No 96¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? No 86¢ 86¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? No 91¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? No 96¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 97¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? No 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? No 85¢ 91¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? No 78¢ 78¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? No 97¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? No 83¢ 84¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? No 91¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 96¢ 1¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$17 +476%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$71 +240%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$12 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$3 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$13 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$9 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 16 $21 −$14 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$19 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$8 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$26 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$16 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $141 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$5 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 24m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 24m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 25m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $7 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $8 26m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $9 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 38m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $8 39m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $8 41m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $9 41m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $8 49m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $8 49m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 52m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 52m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 53m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $7 54m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $8 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 78¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.44 · official $199.46 (match) · 3500 history records