Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
47 0x470c…60b4 politics 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% $0
other 26% $0
economics 21% $0
world 10% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 19 -0.0% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage110d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $64 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $65 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $65 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 10 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $64 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $64 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $64 10d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 25d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 38d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 39d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 43d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 44d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $64 45d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $64 46d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $64 50d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $64 50d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $65 69d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $65 70d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $65 74d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $65 75d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $65 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $65 77d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $65 79d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $65 80d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 84d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 85d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 89d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 89d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $65 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $65 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records