Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x470e…a01f weather 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-6%) realized −$155 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate73%95W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$147
14 days−$170
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$29
world 25% −$124
other 19% −$33
politics 6% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +2.6% -7.2% 75% 45% -23.5%
≤30d 111 -1.7% -11.1% 72% 37% -16.5%
≤90d 130 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 35% -16.3%
all 130 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 35% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -16.3%
10% -19.6% 16% -24.3%
15% -27.3% 8% -31.6%
20% -34.5% 4% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized−$155
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses95 / 35
Open positions23
Markets (closed)130 / 153
History coverage43d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $87 $88 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? No 54¢ 56¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? No 95¢ 96¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? No 95¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 85¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Huning in 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes 82¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 25? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? Jun 24 $80 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $66 +$10 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$2 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 22 $89 −$89 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +25%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $69 −$47 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $71 +$14 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $72 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $54 −$45 -82%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +32%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 +$7 +21%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 +$3 +24%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $9 −$6 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 +$2 +31%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 21? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $68 −$38 -56%
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -80%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $2 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +141%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 51¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $19 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 16h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 21h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 21h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 21h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 21h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 21h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 21h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 25? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 21h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 98¢ $43 23h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 91¢ $40 27h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 76¢ $15 40h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 24? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 40h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $22 43h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 24? BUY No 80¢ $5 46h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 25? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.20 · official $293.24 (match) · 463 history records