Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4710…6604 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$246 (+1%) realized +$251 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%53W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$69
14 days+$77
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$99
finance 18% +$37
other 6% +$7
tech 4% +$69
politics 4% +$4
economics 4% +$4
sports 2% +$8
world 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 0% -2.8%
≤30d 4 +2.6% -7.2% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤90d 13 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.0%
all 54 +1.1% -8.5% 98% 2% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -8.5%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.04 per $1 lost it wins $13.04
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$1,001
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses53 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage246d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,006 $1,001 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $936 +$69 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $929 +$8 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $101 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 27 $913 +$14 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 05 $189 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 05 $657 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 12 $188 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 11 $212 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? Apr 10 $444 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $843 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 28 $900 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22? Mar 22 $893 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20? Mar 20 $448 +$5 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20? Mar 20 $440 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $436 +$4 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Mar 16 $428 +$8 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 13 $427 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $424 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $328 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $92 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,500 on March 8? Mar 09 $417 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 6? Mar 08 $416 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $415 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $413 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $433 −$20 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3? Mar 04 $433 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 3? Mar 03 $426 +$7 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? Mar 01 $425 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 27 $45 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 27 $369 +$11 +3%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 24 $413 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 11? Feb 13 $412 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $401 +$11 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 9? Feb 10 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 6? Feb 04 $399 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 4 Feb 03 $399 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $396 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in January? Jan 25 $392 +$4 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $373 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $320 +$53 +16%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 06 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 18? Nov 18 $319 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $316 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 7? Nov 06 $146 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,000 on November 7? Nov 06 $169 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 October 27-November 2? Nov 05 $314 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,005 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $936 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $524 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $105 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $103 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $102 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $85 17d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $17 17d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $101 22d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $102 24d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $929 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $735 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $2 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $18 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $37 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $4 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $38 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $4 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $17 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $10 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $30 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $913 50d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $189 71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? SELL No 100¢ $189 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.68 · official $1,000.17 (match) · 179 history records