Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4711…7e68 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$1
other 25% +$1
economics 25% $0
world 17% −$17
sports 4% −$39
tech 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -3.0% -12.2% 18% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 30 -4.8% -13.9% 33% 0% -10.6%
all 31 -4.6% -13.7% 32% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.6%
10% -22.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage99d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $158 −$5 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $77 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $77 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $77 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $45 −$13 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $23 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $165 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $165 −$1 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $160 +$6 +4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $178 −$1 -1%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $720 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $508 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $1,202 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $149 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $76 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $83 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $76 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $62 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $76 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $71 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $75 46h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 36¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $70 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $9 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $77 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $85 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $77 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $77 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $73 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records