Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4711…d44c crypto 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$151 (+2%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$337per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$52
other 31% −$2
world 7% −$1
sports 4% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.5% -43.4% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 20 -31.5% -38.0% 35% 5% -7.5%
≤90d 20 -31.5% -38.0% 35% 5% -7.5%
all 20 -31.5% -38.0% 35% 5% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 5% -7.5%
10% -44.0% 5% -16.3%
15% -49.4% 5% -24.4%
20% -54.3% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$534) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$5 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.58 per $1 lost it wins $3.58
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage20d
Avg bet$337
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $517 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $539 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $518 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $505 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $516 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $486 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $700 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $534 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $295 +$205 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $517 32h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $539 32h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $539 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $518 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $505 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $539 6d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $540 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $501 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $538 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $539 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $516 13d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 13d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $534 16d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $295 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $0 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes $9 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $3 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $3 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $0 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $1 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $2 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $3 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records