Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4713…4d21
sports · 87 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,836 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,272 · open −$1,846
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7,436
Realized+$11,272
Unrealized−$1,846
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$806
Open positions19
Markets (closed)70 / 87
History coverage1d
Avg bet$738
Trades / day3298.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,272
7 days+$11,272
14 days+$11,272
30 days+$11,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 74¢ 53¢ $2,533 $1,810 −$723 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 37¢ 47¢ $1,387 $1,785 +$397 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 59¢ 100¢ $864 $1,474 +$610 (+71%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group D Virtus.pro 61¢ 100¢ $602 $991 +$388 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 69¢ 98¢ $311 $445 +$135 (+43%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 100¢ $185 $403 +$218 (+118%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Yes 30¢ 8¢ $900 $240 −$660 (-73%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 29¢ 2¢ $2,055 $105 −$1,950 (-95%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 37¢ 67¢ $50 $91 +$41 (+81%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Clutchain 70¢ 74¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 43¢ 46¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner ex-MANA eSports 23¢ 60¢ $6 $15 +$10 (+162%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner GenOne 36¢ 44¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Clutchain 29¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs ex-MANA eSports 22¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 33¢ 0¢ $565 $1 −$564 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 32¢ 0¢ $245 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 1 Winner ex-MANA eSports 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 31¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Monte 46¢ 0¢ $1,444 $0 −$1,444 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 36¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,530 +$873 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,469 +$423 +29%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$15 +48%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,620 −$564 -35%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $407 +$21 +5%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $206 +$35 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $470 +$246 +52%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $876 −$37 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,923 −$1,435 -75%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $147 −$41 -28%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $252 −$128 -51%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $547 −$368 -67%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $177 −$177 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $598 −$331 -55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $576 +$161 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $937 +$498 +53%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,882 +$320 +17%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$101 +138%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $232 −$9 -4%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $327 −$182 -56%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,379 −$1,646 -69%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,547 +$132 +8%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $33 −$27 -84%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $394 +$14 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $226 +$53 +24%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $412 −$377 -92%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $281 +$45 +16%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,441 +$410 +28%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $294 −$101 -34%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $19 −$14 -74%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $1,854 −$1,663 -90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $88 −$33 -37%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $58 +$7 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $686 −$629 -92%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $21 −$4 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,518 +$602 +24%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $114 −$74 -65%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $293 −$35 -12%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $1,297 −$996 -77%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,106 +$470 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$10,045
other 1% −$619
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 72¢ $68 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 74¢ $100 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 74¢ $39 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 74¢ $30 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 73¢ $29 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 73¢ $4 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 73¢ $4 0m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $63 1m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $35 1m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $4 1m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St BUY GenOne 43¢ $15 1m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 36¢ $7 1m
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 22¢ $1 2m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 80¢ $81 4m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 80¢ $5 4m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 80¢ $5 4m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 85¢ $7 4m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $17 5m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $17 5m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $8 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $8 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $6 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $7 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $7 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $6 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $14 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $14 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $1 6m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $1 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +37.1% +24.0% 43% 39% -3.6%
≤30d 70 +37.1% +24.0% 43% 39% -3.6%
≤90d 70 +37.1% +24.0% 43% 39% -3.6%
all 70 +37.1% +24.0% 43% 39% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3298.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 39% -3.6%
10% +12.2% 31% -12.8%
15% ← realistic here +1.3% 20% -21.2%
20% -8.6% 16% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,435.91 · official $7,435.91 (match) · 3500 history records