Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:15:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4715…6efb other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$198 (+3%) realized +$168 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$72
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
≤30d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
≤90d 4 -14.2% -22.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
all 4 -14.2% -22.4% 25% 25% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 25% -12.5%
10% -29.8% 25% -20.8%
15% -36.6% 25% -28.5%
20% -42.8% 25% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$145 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1,870
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1,510 $1,536 +$26 (+2%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 24¢ 26¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+10%)
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 13¢ 12¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-4%)
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Yes 3¢ 3¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,840 −$394 -14%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $159 −$22 -14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $455 +$323 +71%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $68 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $158 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $158 2h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $132 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $227 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $105 9h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $105 9h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $16 9h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $95 9h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $84 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $300 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $306 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 39¢ $283 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $145 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $1,744 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $300 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $273 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $237 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $131 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $104 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $523 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $314 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $209 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,869.95 · official $1,870.01 (match) · 53 history records