Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:14:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.0

score

47 0x4718…e2e8 sports 34 markets active 8h ago coverage 86d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge

Total PnL +$55,634 (+52%) realized +$55,634 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%15W / 19L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown33%max

Avg bet$3,172per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$1,624est.

Kalshi-fit76%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,492

7 days+$4,463

14 days+$19,464

30 days+$27,869

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+44.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+14.0%	+3.1%	42%	42%	+0.2%
≤30d	29	-14.3%	-22.4%	34%	34%	+17.7%
≤90d	34	+59.3%	+44.1%	44%	44%	+25.6%
all	34	+59.3%	+44.1%	44%	44%	+25.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+44.1%	44%	+25.6%
10% ← realistic here	+30.3%	44%	+13.5%
15%	+17.7%	41%	+2.6%
20%	+6.2%	41%	-7.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$4,267) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +138% → late -20% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$5,478 vs −$2,358 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$55,634

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses15 / 19

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$1,624

Open positions0

Markets (closed)34 / 34

History coverage86d

Avg bet$3,172

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown33%

Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 34 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$3,409	−$3,333	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$4,253	−$3,153	-74%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5,443	−$5,334	-98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$4,077	+$6,125	+150%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$535	−$520	-97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3,403	+$7,707	+226%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$7,838	−$1,000	-13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$1,082	−$1,082	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$5,079	+$5,559	+109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$1,815	+$2,999	+165%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$16,395	−$16,395	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$5,954	+$12,890	+216%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes	Jun 06	$4	−$4	-100%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators	Jun 06	$5	−$5	-100%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Jun 06	$25	−$25	-100%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks	Jun 06	$70	−$70	-100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats	Jun 06	$125	−$125	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Jun 06	$1,019	−$1,019	-100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Jun 06	$800	−$800	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 06	$1,049	−$1,049	-100%
Thunder vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$1,529	−$1,529	-100%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 06	$1,026	−$1,026	-100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Jun 06	$3,561	−$3,561	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$7,820	+$13,024	+167%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	Jun 05	$1,570	+$2,132	+136%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$8,679	+$9,057	+104%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 29	$5,102	−$4,771	-94%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	May 24	$8,955	+$8,478	+95%
Thunder vs. Spurs	May 23	$4,267	+$4,698	+110%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	May 16	$514	+$6,580	+1280%
Heat vs. Hornets	May 14	$1,000	+$274	+27%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini	Apr 05	$1,301	+$1,496	+115%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils	Apr 04	$125	+$1,113	+890%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Mar 28	$31	+$36	+116%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$3,409	7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	15¢	$986	9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$3,404	9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	32¢	$849	9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5,443	13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,627	15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	91¢	$8,210	15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	90¢	$364	15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$4,077	15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	4¢	$535	15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$850	42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$2,552	42h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	13¢	$1,026	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	92¢	$23,193	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	24¢	$3,409	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	30¢	$3,403	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	10¢	$513	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$5,079	3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	20¢	$568	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,815	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	100¢	$18,844	5d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	32¢	$2,551	5d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	30¢	$3,403	5d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	30¢	$5,672	7d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	39¢	$5,091	7d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	54¢	$5,632	7d
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	90¢	$20,845	10d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	33¢	$7,820	10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	SELL Hurricanes	57¢	$710	11d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes	BUY Hurricanes	16¢	$298	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records