Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4718…7d4d crypto 30 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$21
other 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 19% -13.0%
≤30d 30 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 20% -13.2%
≤90d 30 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 20% -13.2%
all 30 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 20% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 20% -13.2%
10% -21.4% 13% -21.5%
15% -29.0% 13% -29.1%
20% -35.9% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $30 −$21 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$11 -44%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $12 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $24 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $7 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records