Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4719…8d69 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,224 (-5%) realized −$1,224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$635per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$3,578
sports 6% +$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -19.8% -27.5% 20% 20% -7.0%
≤30d 24 -21.6% -29.1% 29% 21% -8.9%
≤90d 35 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 34% -7.7%
all 35 +0.4% -9.1% 40% 34% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 34% -7.7%
10% -17.8% 34% -16.5%
15% -25.8% 34% -24.6%
20% -33.0% 34% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$583) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$834 vs −$712 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage33d
Avg bet$635
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,536 −$1,955 -77%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,007 +$3,465 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,091 −$2,980 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,555 +$7,594 +488%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,094 −$1,057 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $583 −$520 -89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,025 −$1,985 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,189 −$2,170 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,314 −$2,075 -90%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $292 −$286 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,381 −$1,187 -86%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$98 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $22 +$51 +226%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 4 Winner May 29 $57 +$46 +82%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 2 Winner May 29 $46 +$70 +154%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $27 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 3 Winner May 29 $313 +$30 +10%
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $36 +$94 +262%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 28 $12 +$8 +70%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner May 28 $16 +$38 +239%
Valorant: Pigeons vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: May 27 $123 +$99 +80%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 27 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $88 +$59 +67%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner May 27 $58 +$45 +77%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 27 $119 −$37 -31%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 26 $110 +$76 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $533 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 52¢ $534 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 46¢ $7 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $1,996 7h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $316 30h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals AND Erling Haala BUY 4¢ $18 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $149 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $49 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $11 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $3,798 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $895 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 1¢ $85 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $4 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $33 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $16 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $50 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records