Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:39:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x471a…0328 other 155 markets active 12h ago coverage 84d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64,214 (+4%) realized +$64,214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate69%107W / 48L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,803per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$25,268
politics 27% +$37,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.6% -25.4% 69% 23% -5.7%
≤30d 44 -9.7% -18.3% 73% 14% -8.9%
≤90d 155 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 14% -8.8%
all 155 -5.4% -14.4% 69% 14% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 14% -8.8%
10% -22.6% 10% -17.6%
15% ← realistic here -30.1% 5% -25.5%
20% -37.0% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$7,872) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$478 vs −$822 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64,214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses107 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)155 / 155
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$9,803
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 155 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4,396 +$79 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3,729 +$436 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8,115 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4,725 +$41 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3,187 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $513 +$612 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $764 +$219 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6,224 +$387 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5,734 +$122 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,177 +$90 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $230 +$247 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4,515 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,186 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,383 −$338 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,020 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3,393 +$38 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $7,033 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5,234 +$40 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $594 −$585 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $7,479 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $389 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7,353 +$291 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,570 +$37 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,320 +$50 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $359 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $6,884 +$184 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,679 +$85 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,331 −$273 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6,986 −$11 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $5,440 +$24 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $7,838 −$490 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $340 +$113 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $7,681 +$91 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $6,050 +$76 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $1,813 −$560 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $4,984 +$111 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $2,272 +$12 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $1,137 +$419 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $163 +$120 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $476 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,959 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,331 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $191 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $320 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $327 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $476 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $123 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $357 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $308 11h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $481 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $150 45h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $38 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $184 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $375 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $278 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records