Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
47 0x471c…fe6a sports 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+7%) realized +$48 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$16
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$5
other 38% +$30
crypto 1% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +26.8% +14.7% 40% 38% -14.2%
≤30d 71 +21.1% +9.6% 49% 46% -7.0%
≤90d 71 +21.1% +9.6% 49% 46% -7.0%
all 71 +21.1% +9.6% 49% 46% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 46% -7.0%
10% -0.9% 41% -15.9%
15% -10.5% 37% -24.1%
20% -19.2% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 77
History coverage12d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 91¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$4 +70%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$8 +79%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$8 -51%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$16 +51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$6 +180%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 $0 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$15 +100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 +$11 +1116%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$12 +119%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +39%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$14 +1329%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +133%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 +$13 +203%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 +$11 +117%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$8 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $2 3m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $3 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $6 5m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $8 8m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $7 8m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 10m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 82¢ $18 22m
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 1h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 4h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 5h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Croatia BUY 18¢ $3 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 71¢ $10 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $10 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 24h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 27h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $5 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $21 46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 46h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.19 · official $34.19 (match) · 176 history records