Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:34:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x471d…6c92 world 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$1
other 20% −$1
finance 2% −$1
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.5% +6.3% 23% 8% -9.8%
≤30d 31 +9.9% -0.6% 26% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 35 +8.3% -2.0% 26% 6% -9.6%
all 39 +4.9% -5.1% 28% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 5% -10.0%
10% -14.1% 5% -18.6%
15% -22.4% 5% -26.5%
20% -30.0% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage487d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $37 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $120 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $26 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $71 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $48 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -53%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $315 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $287 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $41 +$3 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $277 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $278 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kentucky win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 28-29°F on February 19? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $32 7m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $4 7m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $37 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $35 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $3 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $38 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $20 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $19 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $0 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $24 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $17 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $26 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $8 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $17 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $32 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $34 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.45 · official $0.00 · 157 history records