Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x471d…8b22 other 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,296 (-11%) realized −$8,278 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%48W / 55L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$651per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$287
7 days−$219
14 days+$77
30 days−$1,557
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$3,233
world 24% −$4,431
other 23% −$1,692
politics 15% +$153
economics 8% −$168
finance 4% +$168
culture 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.1% -34.0% 43% 29% -23.2%
≤30d 12 -20.8% -28.3% 58% 33% -21.4%
≤90d 25 -11.6% -20.1% 60% 36% -14.7%
all 103 -14.0% -22.2% 47% 36% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 36% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 27% -27.8%
15% -36.4% 22% -34.8%
20% -42.7% 18% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$813) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$220 vs −$367 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$2,289
Realized−$8,278
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses48 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)103 / 120
History coverage136d
Avg bet$651
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $558 $555 −$3 (-1%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 83¢ 89¢ $374 $401 +$27 (+7%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $298 $319 +$20 (+7%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $227 $219 −$8 (-3%)
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $119 $118 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $101 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $108 $98 −$10 (-9%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $99 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 91¢ $89 $86 −$3 (-3%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 62¢ $91 $65 −$25 (-28%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $58 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-8%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 70¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $212 +$13 +6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $237 −$236 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $347 −$344 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $455 +$301 +66%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $158 +$69 +44%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M Jun 06 $225 +$39 +17%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $1,058 +$27 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 06 $223 +$29 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 06 $2,673 +$201 +8%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,250 −$1,634 -73%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $2,772 +$237 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $133 +$39 +29%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 04 $1,235 +$309 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $68 +$4 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $118 +$63 +54%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $68 −$68 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $2,211 −$1,741 -79%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $6,003 +$340 +6%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $136 −$12 -9%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $457 +$269 +59%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 29 $39 $0 +0%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $472 +$278 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $447 −$447 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 15 $326 −$237 -73%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? Mar 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $2,043 −$37 -2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 14 $13 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Mar 12 $692 −$610 -88%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Mar 11 $18 +$10 +57%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 11 $337 −$337 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Mar 11 $581 −$581 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 10 $578 +$262 +45%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $950 +$1,241 +131%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $1,904 −$69 -4%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $1,425 +$1,075 +75%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Mar 05 $659 +$361 +55%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Mar 05 $177 +$27 +15%
Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential Mar 05 $523 +$63 +12%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Mar 05 $968 +$200 +21%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 05 $2,148 +$365 +17%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $2,027 +$619 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $228 15m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $237 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $14 1h
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 1h
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $43 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY No 94¢ $212 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $347 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $89 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $92 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $290 25h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 2d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $41 3d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $62 3d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $27 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $27 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $41 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,288.85 · official $2,288.86 (match) · 1911 history records